On October 7th, 2024, Nature Aging published work co-authored by AFAR 2016 Irving S. Wright Award recipient and recent board member S. Jay Olshansky, PhD, on the limits of radical extension. Funding for the broad dissemination of this study through open access was provided by AFAR.
The paper provides strong evidence suggesting that the dramatic increase in life expectancy for more than a century has ended. Any further progress in life or health span will require a breakthrough in geroscience.
The abstract states “Over the course of the 20th century, human life expectancy at birth rose in developed nations by around 30 years, largely driven by advances in public health and medicine. Mortality reduction observed initially at an early age, continued into middle and older ages. However, it was unclear whether this phenomenon and the resulting accelerated rise in life expectancy would continue into the 21st century…Our analysis suggests that survival to age 100 is unlikely to exceed 15 percent for females and 5 percent for males, altogether suggesting that unless the processes of biological aging can be markedly slowed, radical human life extension is implausible in this century.”
Dr. Olshansky is a Professor in the School of Public Health at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a Research Associate at the Center on Aging at the University of Chicago and at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, as well as the Co-Founder and Chief Scientist at Lapetus Solutions, Inc.
This research will be the focus of our upcoming webinar “How Realistic is a 100-Year Life Expectancy and Why Does it Matter?” featuring Dr. Olshansky and economist Andrew J. Scott, DPhil, in dialogue with AFAR Scientific Director Steven N. Austad, PhD. Rescheduled to October 22nd at 2pm ET. Learn more and RSVP here.
The paper, “Implausibility of Radical Life Extension in Humans in the 21st Century” is available open access, thanks to AFAR’s support, here.
Read a related Nature Aging article here.
